Welcome to That Home Loan Hub, your ultimate guide to mastering the world of home loans and property. I'm Zebunisso Alimova, here to simplify the complexities of real estate and provide you with expert insights and the latest trends.
Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, an experienced investor, or simply curious about the property market, this podcast is for you. Join me each week as we unlock the secrets to property success and help you make informed decisions. Let's dive into the world of property together!
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Property headlines are designed to make you feel like you’re late, wrong, or doomed. We’d rather talk about what actually happens: the New Zealand property market moves in cycles, and the stories people tell at the top and bottom are almost always extreme. So we zoom out and look at the pattern, why downturns don’t last forever, and why a calmer long-term view can help you make better choices with housing, lending, and risk.
We also get real about the COVID-era surge and why it was such an unusual period for house prices. When prices ran up fast, plenty of buyers jumped in with FOMO, sometimes teaming up with friends or family to make it work. Now some of them want to move overseas, change relationships, or simply regain flexibility, and they’re staring at the possibility of selling at a loss. We talk through the problem in plain language, and the kinds of questions that matter if you’re deciding whether to hold, sell, or wait.
From there we dig into practical decision points: whether it’s a “good time to buy” if you’re a first home buyer, how election uncertainty can rattle confidence, and why comparing markets like Auckland and Christchurch depends on what you want (rental yield versus long-term capital gains). We also flag one indicator we keep an eye on because it quietly shifts demand over time: net migration, especially when Australia cools and New Zealand looks more attractive.
If you want help making sense of your options, listen through, share this with someone who’s stuck in the timing spiral, and subscribe so you don’t miss the upcoming first home buyer case study. If you found it useful, leave a review and tell us what property question you want answered next.
Property cycle episode. I've got James back in the house. Hello, James.
SPEAKER_01
Buongiorno.
SPEAKER_02
It's been a while since I had you in.
SPEAKER_00
I know.
SPEAKER_02
And today we're going to talk about the property cycles.
SPEAKER_00
Yeah.
SPEAKER_02
I think you're just into cycling. Oh, yeah.
SPEAKER_00
Sorry, I got that topic wrong. We are talking about road cycling today. Imagine. Not the property cycle. Because no, I just think it's a really interesting position. We always like get caught in the now, right? And we think the property cycle, property, all I'm hearing is property is dead, property's never going to come back. And you know, this is the same thing we were
heard a number of years ago about, you know, the share market, financial market. So these things go in cycles. To me, it feels like we're at the bottom of the cycle. It's a really good time to be buying a property if you're a first-time buyer. And interest rates are reasonably low historically, so and prices are way off their peaks, especially in our region, maybe off 30 to uh 25 to 30 percent Wellington and Capity, and you know, they're down in Auckland now, and even the South Island is flattening off a wee bit. So I feel like that we are in we are getting near the bottom of the cycle. Taken's also think about that we've got an election coming up, so there's a lot of uncertainty. We have no idea who's gonna win that election.
Mr. Luxton, but then managed to hold on to his position as Prime Minister.
SPEAKER_02
So he came back three hours later. Yeah, and yeah, it's gonna be interesting to watch this year what's gonna happen. But you're right, like the property people often forget, and I think you and I have lived long enough now to work through multiple property cycles. The properties tend to go up and then down and then up and then down and then up again. And the fundamental for me is I always think back when I brought my first property over 14-15 years ago now. Yeah, 15 years ago. And that property has still tripled in price since then.
SPEAKER_00
Yeah.
SPEAKER_02
Yes, it quadrupled in COVID times, but then it went back down again. But who is to say that in a few years' time it won't go back up again?
SPEAKER_00
And I think what we should do is really with the COVID time is we need to take those two two years out of our psyche and go, that was a really, really unusual period. And
what we're seeing now is prices went up way too much and way, you know, way too quickly. And now so we saw an extended increase in prices. What we're seeing now is the balancing out of that. Is this taking a little bit this this movement down? Is this taking a little bit longer than other downtrends have taken because that uptrend was quite magnificent? So I think we need to keep that in consideration that that was just a really unusual period.
SPEAKER_02
And I want to talk about that period maybe now, maybe separately, I don't know. But I think we do need to dive a little bit into that and the follow follow-through effect it had on people that now sort of stuck with those properties. You know, people that were having a FOMO and they were jumping in and buying with their friends, with their family members, and now they want to move overseas or they want to move apart, yeah, and they can't.
SPEAKER_00
Yeah, it's a it's a big thing, isn't it? Like they're losing a hundred to two hundred thousand dollars on their on their property potentially.
SPEAKER_02
And so, what do you do in those situations? So it'd be really cool to unpick that topic as well, I think, for our listeners. But if we go back to the property cycles for a moment, you know, the question that we always get asked is is it a good time to buy now? Is it a good time
to buy and wait it out maybe six months' time or a year? My suggestion has always been to people if you can buy now, if you can afford to buy now, just buy now. Because you never know what's around the corner. The property prices could go up. They could also go down.
SPEAKER_00
Yeah, absolutely.
SPEAKER_02
You don't know that. And with the election, you know, coming, I mean, if labor gets in, there's a lot of talk that investors will be getting rid of their stock. Yep. Because if the capital gains tax comes back and things like that, that won't be beneficial for investors to hang on to the rental properties. But I don't know. What if you're not going to do that?
SPEAKER_00
No, no, well, certainly what I from what I understand, capital gains tax is that in other places where there are capital gains tax, such as Australia and on property and places like that, it's has really no impact on on the on the value of properties over time. So I think once we get over the initial shared trauma trauma or trauma? Trauma? I can't remember. That that's I don't see that as being a huge issue. But and I would agree with you, I we don't know for sure that property prices aren't gonna go down, but I totally agree that if you're in a good position now uh to buy a home and you're a first home buyer, if you're if you want if that's something that you really want as your goal, then it's a great time.
SPEAKER_02
And we've got a fantastic case study. Stay tuned, we're gonna unpick it in the next episode for you, where we had a first-home buyer that didn't believe they can get on the ladder, and they they did. So stay tuned for that episode as we will give you real figures, real numbers that we've worked with. So, property cycles, we're seeing the downturn right now. I was looking at some data and our counterparts that do amazing podcasts, and they were comparing Auckland versus Christchurch, you know, whether you should invest here or there.
Auckland has much, still much higher entry price versus Christchurch, but they're saying over the term Auckland will probably have better capital gains for you versus Christchurch will have better yield position. So, you know, if you're sitting on the fence thinking whether you should buy, invest, reach out to us. Yeah, we are free to run your numbers and we can sit down and look. And you know, lately what I want to say, James, is I had so many listeners reaching out to me, which makes me so, so happy. It's like, wow, people actually reaching out, we'll get fan mail.
SPEAKER_01
Boxes of it. I had to, you know, honestly, I had to step over it all on the way in here. Oh, thanks.
SPEAKER_02
But you know, we are doing this for you. So if there are any particular topics you want us to attack, please let us know. And we'd love to, because sometimes we don't know what you don't know. And only you know what you don't know. So if that makes sense. I speak, I'm speaking like Dr. Seuss right now. So um, yeah, reach out, we'll be able to help you and run some numbers for you and see where is the best place for you to go, whether you're buying, whether you're selling, whether you're looking to hang on to a property. Done a lot of those at the moment as well, talking about the property cycles, as a lot of my clients that can buy next one and still hold hold on to the existing one. We're just holding on to them and then we can sell them in 12 months' time or 18 months' time when the property marks.
SPEAKER_00
I'm certainly meeting with a lot of sort of older people as well that are they have more than one property and they're looking to sell one of their properties to for their retirement, but they're looking at other options because it's not a great time to be selling their selling their house. But one thing if you are if you are really interested in following where the property cycle is at, one area of the economy to look at is net migration. So
if you are what we're seeing in Australia is house prices really come off the boil over there, and we tend to attract more migrants, net migrants when well we keep more of our own people and we attract more internationals when Australia's not doing so well. So when they come off the boil, New Zealand looks better comparatively speaking. So keep an eye on net migration, that's beginning to pick up, and that of course has quite a big impact on house prices here because it increases demand over over time. So that's something to keep a look out for. But that is a bit of a political, you know, a bit of a political forecast.
SPEAKER_02
We'll leave politics out of this episode. Awesome, James, thank you so much. Lovely to have you, and let's do our next one. So, guys, stay tuned. We're gonna do a case study for you. Thank you.
