Welcome And Rate Direction

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Welcome back about the state of economy. I've got James Buchanan with me today. Hello, Jonathan. Long time no see.

SPEAKER_01 0:08

Yeah, it has been.

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We had a lot on.

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Yeah.

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And today we're going to talk about where are the interest rates heading and what's actually happening.

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Absolutely.

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So OCR is due to be reviewed next week, 9th of July. What

OCR Review And Why It May Hold

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are your thoughts?

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Well, I just based on what other people say, you know, economists and so forth and commentary, I wouldn't be surprised if it it it stays as it is. I think because there's, you know, with the with with inflation not quite as high as what we thought it was, and with the the m the Middle East crisis or the war between, you know, US and you know, got oil prices coming right back. So it's not looking like it's quite so necessary to to increase the OCR as what it was perhaps a couple of months ago. So I wouldn't be surprised if it stays on flat, stays flat.

SPEAKER_00 1:00

Stays flat. Yeah. So I was reading this morning from Tony Alexander update as well. And yeah, initially I think all the banks were freaking out a little bit. And ANZ was one of the first ones that

Banks Reprice And Change Their Tune

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increased the interest rates a month ago. And actually their tracking was one of the highest at the moment. And then ASB has actually kept it quite low. Westpac and BNZ had a moment of panic and they both increased their interest rates last week, but it came down since then.

SPEAKER_01 1:27

Yeah. Well, I have heard that the Westpac Westpac have now changed their mind on whether that they don't think there's going to be an OCR rise. They're leaning towards a it holding. Um but yeah, it's interesting what you say about ASP and ANZ. Sent a comparison to a client yesterday, one who who's got approval of both lenders. And yeah, ASB is looking pretty sharp.

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Definitely a winner.

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Yeah.

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But that also reflected now in their time turnaround times. You know, ANZ approves our deals within a day or two.

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Yeah.

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And then ASB is like taking a week.

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So I know it's just been a complete turnaround. Like for me, uh ASB was the first person the first bank that would always get back to me. Now A and Z is getting back to you within a couple of days, and you've got the client across the line, and then these other banks is lining up. But even if the the the rate is high from A and Z, the clients are like so pleased with what A and Z has done in terms of service that they're quite keen to um stay with them. That's interesting.

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Um, look, at the end of the day, anything below five is a good rate, anything below

Service Speed Versus Lowest Rate

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six is a good rate. Yep. Right? At the climate that we're in, because property prices are still quite low. Yep. We are still seeing really good deals out there. Just last week I had another single mama buy a property. So that was really cool.

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Cracks me out when you call them single mamas.

SPEAKER_00 2:52

Single mama. Well, there was another single daddy that

Buyer’s Market Opens Doors

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you're working with at the moment. So yeah, so we're definitely seeing a lot of people that are keen to get on a property ladder that probably wouldn't have had that opportunity before.

SPEAKER_01 3:04

Yep. Well, the great thing is from our perspective and our clients' perspective, uh even though there's lots of things that are volatile in the broader market, it's really worked in first home buyers' favor because we've had this protracted period of it being a buyer's market. I there's no way I would have thought this buyer's market would have lasted as long as what it has. But it's still what Wellington's still 30% off highs or from the peak, I think. Capity's probably not too far behind. So you are get and people got really good deposits.

SPEAKER_00 3:38

And that was my other point as well that I was about to raise that a lot of people have been putting money away for quite some time into KiwiSaver. KiwiSaver has definitely helped heaps of people get on the ladder right now. And that the heap if they had their KiwiSaver in the right funds and it performed really well for them, then they suddenly

KiwiSaver Deposits And Fund Risk

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got all this money than they wouldn't have had otherwise.

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And I know I can think of just one client off the top of my head who is really happy that we told, well, we suggested they get advice on putting their to protect their deposit, go from a growth fund to a conservative fund.

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This is not a financial advice. No, it's not.

SPEAKER_01 4:14

And I didn't give them that advice. I asked them to talk to their provider about it.

SPEAKER_00 4:18

Yeah. And again, right, that makes the difference in this volatile market because your Kivis 7 could be 100k today and drop down to 90 tomorrow. So you just never know. So you've got to keep an eye on those things. You've got to be more responsible. Hey, did you know I'm running a webinar next week?

SPEAKER_01 4:34

I did know that. And I know many people that also know that.

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So for those that are listening, and if you're a first-time buyer, you know, do come in. We're gonna talk about what to do to prepare yourself. If you're looking to buy a house in the next six to twelve months, those webinars have always been very useful because often I'll get calls

Webinar Invite For First Home Buyers

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from people that attended the webinar like a year ago, two years ago. Yeah. And they go, I remember you from that webinar, you know, I'm ready now. So um, so if you're thinking that uh you want to buy a house in the next six to twelve months, that's the one for you to attend. So drop us a message, we'll send you a link. But apart from that, I think summary of today's discussion really is OCR should still stay stable at the next review, and it's probably gonna go up in September. The

Refixing Tips Cashback Deals Closing

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interest rates sort of come down, but again, if you're floating, don't delay any longer. Yeah, do something about it. If you're refinancing, really good time to refinance. There are some really good offers out there from some banks. Yep. 1% cashback, 1.25% cash back, very attractive. And look, if you're just on the fence and if you don't know what to do, just reach out. We'll be able to help you.

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Absolutely.

SPEAKER_00 5:35

Beautiful. Well, thank you, James, for popping in. Always a pleasure to see you and um talk next time. Yep.