That Home Loan Hub
Welcome to That Home Loan Hub, your ultimate guide to mastering the world of home loans and property. I'm Zebunisso Alimova, here to simplify the complexities of real estate and provide you with expert insights and the latest trends.
Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, an experienced investor, or simply curious about the property market, this podcast is for you. Join me each week as we unlock the secrets to property success and help you make informed decisions. Let's dive into the world of property together!
That Home Loan Hub
OCR Preview: Will Rates Finally Ease?
A quarter of a point can feel tiny until it touches your mortgage, your savings plan, and your next move on the ladder. We break down the looming OCR tweak, the real reasons banks push cashbacks instead of cutting fixed rates, and how wholesale swap rates quietly call the shots. It’s a practical map for anyone deciding whether to fix short, float, or wait for February when a new Reserve Bank governor could shift the narrative.
We get candid about inflation that doesn’t feel like choice. Insurance and council rates keep rising and still get counted, which can hold policy tighter even as your grocery basket steadies. That’s why a modest OCR cut may filter to variable rates faster than fixed specials, and why term strategy matters: shorter fixes can carry you to clearer guidance next quarter, while a blended approach reduces regret if pricing surprises.
On the housing front, first‑home buyers are stepping in as investors catch their breath. We share on‑the‑ground stories of trashed rentals, long re‑lets, and discounted rents that cooled investor appetite, creating space for new buyers to turn rent into ownership at comparable weekly costs. We also talk KiwiSaver in plain terms: hardship withdrawals are up, but smart fund selection and steady contributions can make a six‑figure difference by retirement. If mortgage costs ease, direct a slice to buffers and KiwiSaver so relief today becomes resilience tomorrow.
By the end, you’ll know how we’re reading bank behaviour, what could shift in February, and why now can be a good window for well‑prepared first‑home buyers. Subscribe for more straight‑talk market insights, share this with someone weighing a fix or float, and leave a review with your current rate term and why—you might help someone make a smarter call.
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So the OCR topic. Let's talk about that. Hello, Kunch. Good morning. Nice and fast and quick. Yes. Okay. The last OCR review for the year. It's tomorrow. It's tomorrow. Uh probably by the time people listen to this. It's gonna be a good one. So when you're done and done.
SPEAKER_00:What are the predictions? Another cut. 0.25? Yeah. A 0.25. Not a big one. Not a big one. The last one of the year as well. So that will give us a good indication because there's a big gap until the next one. Interesting. Do you think the banks will drop the rates? They'll they'll I think they'll priced it in.
SPEAKER_01:You know what? I was thinking, you know how we did the whole episode on cashback and how the banks are offering all this extra incentive? I think they did this instead of dropping the rates. Yeah, true. To lock people in. Yes. Yes. True. I don't know. That was my gut feeling that um why they're playing this game. Yeah. And I think because they're like, cool, refinance now, lock the rates, blah blah blah. Because it was a really interesting article I read, and the guy was wrong. I'm sorry to say. But it was can't always be right. No, but he was like, Oh, you know, the banks are offering all this cash back and it's amazing, but it will come with higher rates. And I was wondering what he meant by that because the clients are still being offered special rates, right? 4.4, 4.9, yeah, whatever it is. And I was like, why does he mean they they're being stung by higher rates? And then I wondered if he was meaning sub subconsciously somewhere far, far away in his brain, that because the banks are offering higher cashback incentive, they're not moving on the rates as such, and therefore clients are still count counteracting that margin, right?
SPEAKER_00:Of the them dropping. Because normally they drop like a week in advance. Exactly. And they haven't moved.
SPEAKER_01:No, we have not seen the drop.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah. And I wonder if it will happen this year. Do you think we will see another drop? We may see a wee bit. Like obviously the variable rate will drop as the OCR moves. But in terms of the fix rate, I'm not sure. I mean, the swap rates are it gives them that margin to drop. Yeah. But I don't know. I'm not very good on this one. My crystal ball is not bowling on this one. Not bowling. Not crystallizing.
SPEAKER_01:Not crystallizing. Oh my gosh. I think we're gonna see a drop, a small, small, tiny drop, I'll presume this. And then February will be the most interesting one to watch. Because by then we're gonna have a new governor in place, the Reserve Bank, and it's gonna be interesting to see what approach that woman will have.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, well, like they're saying inflation has gone up a wee bit, so they still want to curb that. But then I'm thinking it's a bit silly that they count like insurance and rates and that into inflation because those spends you have to spend that and you have to pay for your insurance. So you have to pay for your rates, and those have gone up like hugely. So it's it's just yeah, I think it's stupid way to go. Sorry, guys. Like I think it should be that the actual consumer spend, like on the you know, the shopping in the basket.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, I think it's also interesting to see that the increase of first-time buyers, right? Like our main clientele, client, clientele, clientele English is our second language, has been first-time buyers. Yes, because the investors are a little bit edgy because of what whatever the labor is wanting to do when they get in into the government, if they get in into the government. So a lot of investors are watching the space. And to be honest, I had a rough year as an investor. Yeah, you know, as a property investor, it's been rough. Yeah, the tenants trash your property, they leave, you have to spend 20k to renovate. Then you know it takes months to get a new good tenant in, and you have to discount the rent that you were receiving before to what you're receiving now. So as a property investor, definitely a bit of a tougher times in different areas of New Zealand. But as a first-time buyer, amazing time to buy.
SPEAKER_00:Such a good time for first-time buyers.
SPEAKER_01:Instead of paying$700 in rent per week, you could be paying that towards your mortgage. So what we've seen is year on year, months on months, increase in our first-time buyers and the property prices, they're still sort of stable. Stable. They're increasing a little bit in certain pockets of New Zealand. And we'll do another episode around, you know, different pockets of New Zealand, how it looks like. But as if you're a first-term buyer and you're looking to buy, like now is the time. Yeah, absolutely. You're benefiting from interest rates. You know, your friends would have bought a house two years ago, and now they're telling you, don't do it because it's so expensive. But remember, your friends were buying at peak at peak, and the interest rates were 7%. Yeah, you're buying at a best time when the property market is low and the interest rates are low. So don't delay. The other thing I wanted to mention our previous episode when we're talking about defaults and you know how people are really struggling at the moment is also the increase of Kiwi Saver withdrawals under hardship. Apparently, it's been the highest they have ever seen. Yep. And that's another thing, right?
SPEAKER_00:That doesn't surprise me.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, people are dipping into their Kiwi Savers to help out with delivering cost. So again, if you have a good job, you're working really well, this is the time to be investing into your Kiwi Saver.
SPEAKER_00:And then as a business owner, for you, going back on KiwiSaver, you hear the announcement of the increase to 12%.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, good for you guys. Not for me.
SPEAKER_00:But how do you like I'm just like, how do small business cope with that? Exactly. And I was thinking exactly the same.
SPEAKER_01:It's actually going to That was my first thought. Yeah, it's going to affect a lot of small businesses that have employees to pay because it comes out from our pocket and our pockets are not that wide. The government thinks. So I think there should be some sort of counter reform on rebate. Like we should be getting some sort of rebate from the government to help us pay for those Kiwi Savers. Yeah. Because to be honest, I do believe in Kiwi Saver. I think we do need to make our New Zealanders wealthier by the time they retire. And the KiwiSaver is one of the proven ways to do that because you can't access it, you can't just easily tap into that money. And if it's managed properly, like at the moment, you know, I'm I'm dealing with a few of our partners that do investment advice and KiwiSaver advice, and we can refer our clients to them. And I can see the difference in the KiwiSaver balances. You know, it can grow 20%, for instance, versus if you just leave it with the bank, with a default provider, don't do anything about it, it will only grow 5%. So the difference is by the time you retire, it could be 300k difference. Yeah. And that's massive, right? If you especially if you're going to leave up to the age of 90 or 95, like it gives you$200 per week.
SPEAKER_00:I can still run at 95 and walk.
SPEAKER_01:Yes. I'm sure you will. I'm sure you will. But see, like this is where all of those things tie in together. So OCR is one thing, the interest rates will drop, but what do you do with that extra spare money is a completely different topic. And do you even have that spare money left after the rates and insurances and the shopping basket? Exactly. So a place to watch. Our final thoughts are that the interest rates will drop. Yep. Not by March. No. And the February one will be the one to watch.
SPEAKER_00:February will determine what to do for the long term.
SPEAKER_01:Awesome. Thank you guys. Thanks for listening. See you.
SPEAKER_00:Bye.
