That Home Loan Hub

New Zealand Property: Signs of Stability After the Downturn

Zebunisso Alimova

The tide is turning in New Zealand's property market. After months of declining values and market uncertainty, we're seeing the first consistent signs of recovery with house prices increasing 0.2% in June, contributing to a 0.6% rise since January. While these numbers might seem modest, they represent a significant shift in market direction that buyers, sellers, and investors need to understand.

What's driving this change? A perfect storm of factors is creating newfound stability. Interest rates appear to have peaked, with OCR cuts anticipated later this year. Banks are responding by becoming more competitive and relaxing lending criteria, including offering interest-only terms of up to 10 years for investors. The government's shift on policies like tax deductibility has renewed investor confidence. Meanwhile, quality listings remain scarce, creating competitive conditions for desirable properties, with some Auckland auctions attracting more than 11 offers.

For first home buyers wondering if now is the time to enter the market, the message is clear: if you're financially ready with pre-approval secured, don't waste energy trying to time the absolute bottom. That opportunity has likely passed, and waiting can be costly – even a small 2% future increase on a $700,000 property means finding an additional $14,000. Investors should focus on areas where yields remain strong and competition is lower, with opportunities still available in regions like Invercargill where yields of 9.6% have been reported. Whether you're buying your first home or expanding your portfolio, understanding this shifting landscape is crucial for making informed decisions in today's property market. Connect with us if you're feeling uncertain about your next move, and don't forget to subscribe for more insights into New Zealand's property scene.

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Speaker 1:

Hey everyone, welcome back to that Home Loan Hub where we take the stress, the jargon and the snooze factor out of New Zealand property scene. Today we're going to look at the house prices. Are they on the move again? Well, if you're a buyer, a seller or someone just plain curious about what this means for your mortgage and your money, stay with me. I've got some real insights and few practical tips to help you make smarter property moves in this shifting market. So let's start with the numbers. Corelogic just dropped a June update and it's official House prices across New Zealand increased by 0.2% in June.

Speaker 1:

Now you might be thinking Zibuniso, that's not even worth a tweet, but here is why it matters it's part of a trend. So since January, we've now seen a 0.6% rise, and that's not a fluke. All right, guys, that's a signal. So, after a long and painful downturn where some areas dropped up to 20%, I'm looking at you lower heart or upper heart we're starting to see the side that is on the upside, and the key word here is stability. Now confidence is creeping back in. Buyers are feeling a little less afraid. We definitely have seen an increase in buyers over the last few months and banks are starting to ease up on their lending policies. So more and more people are asking me have we hit the bottom and what is driving this mini upturn? Well, let's have a look at the cocktail of factors. One that I'm seeing is a significant player in all of this is the interest rate. Now, with the whispers of further OCR cuts later this year, buyers are sensing that the peak may have passed and this is the good time to buy. The banks are definitely sharpening up their pencils. They're giving us more competitive rates, cashback offers and policy tweaks. That means borrowers are feeling a little more empowered, even for investors, the recent update from ANZ has allowed us to go interest only for up to 10 years on an investment property. So if you're an investor looking for some cashflow positive properties, don't really care much about paying down your debt. You can actually get a mortgage for up to 10 years. That's interest only.

Speaker 1:

But look, there's also another factor in, like listings. Listings are up, but the problem is the quality of the stock. The quality of the stock is still tight what we hear and so when a good property comes to the market, it's moving. It's moving really fast and sometimes with multiple offers. And back to the investors, their confidence is rebuilding as well, thanks to the policy changes and especially around tax deductibility change and a government that's a bit more property friendly. So, while we are not in a boom territory, the floor feels firmer. That alone is enough to nudge prices up and hit up the competition. So, especially in popular regions, I'm hearing the properties in Auckland are selling up really, really fast, with auctions having more than 11 offers just on one property alone.

Speaker 1:

So the big question that I usually get daily at the moment is Zibunisa should I buy now or should I wait? Here's my take. If you're trying to time the absolute bottom, you need to stop. That ship has probably sailed back a few years ago. But if you're first on buyer and the numbers work and you're financially ready and you've got the pre-approval, go shopping. Don't let small movements in the market stop you from building long-term equity. And if you're an investor, it's all about strategy, right, there's still good deals out there, especially areas where yields are holding and competition is low. Just the other day I've heard of one of my investors. He bought an Invercargill four units on one title with the yield of 9.6%. So there are still properties that you can get some really good deals, but you've got to know your numbers and you've got to have a plan. And look, waiting can pay off, but in a rising market it can also cost you. So even a 2% increase on the 700K property is $14,000. So that's real money you'll need to find later.

Speaker 1:

Now we've covered the good news, but there is more to this story Coming up. In our next episode we'll talk about inventory overload. Yes, listings are up, but does that mean buyers have more power again, or is it just noise? We'll break it down. So talk about the psychology of the current market and how to position yourself, whether you're buying or refinancing. And, as always, if you're feeling uncertain, overwhelmed or just want to know how the hell this all affects you or your mortgage, reach out. That's what we're here for. Don't forget to subscribe, share this episode with a friend who is house hunting and follow us for real talk. And remember I've got a couple of webinars coming up to tackle this exact issues, so stay tuned and drop me a word webinar to get the link.

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